Terror groups are changing strategy by moving away from bombs to seeking influence through the democratic process
People gather for prayers at a memorial for victims killed in the 2002 Bali bombings during the 20th anniversary of the blasts that killed more than 200 people, in Kuta on the Indonesian resort island of Bali on Oct. 12. (Photo: AFP)
Indonesians have just marked twenty years since the Bali bombings that killed more than 200 people, mostly foreign travelers who were on the island for holidays.
The attacks by the al-Qaeda-linked Jemaah Islamiyah jihadists became Indonesia’s, even Southeast Asia’s, worst in two decades. It happened on Oct.12, 2002, not long after the world commemorated the first anniversary of the September 11 attacks in the United States.
Although mass terror attacks have decreased significantly in the last several years, it does not mean that terrorism is dead. It remains the biggest threat to the Muslim-majority country. Terrorism is alive and kicking in this country of 270 million people. Extremists are finding ways to penetrate the government system.
Some might be asking about the number of Indonesians who are involved or sympathize with terror groups.
It’s hard to tell. But in the last several years, arresting alleged terrorists has become routine for Indonesia's anti-terror police. The latest was the arrest of a woman, believed to be a member of the disbanded Hizb ut-Tahrir group, who pointed a gun at presidential palace guards on Oct.26. Police later found out that her husband has links with the Islamic State group.
"Extremism remains the biggest threat to the country since its foundation 77 years ago"
Ten days earlier, police arrested a public school teacher in East Java, who, police said, was a member of Jemaah Islamiyah, the group responsible for deadly attacks in the early 2000s, including the Bali bombings.
Extremism remains the biggest threat to the country since its foundation 77 years ago, despite the Muslim-majority nation, adopting a secular ideology, rather than Islamic Sharia.
The decision of the founding fathers under President Sukarno to adopt the secular ideology Pancasila or Five Principles was not without challenges.
Over time, individuals and groups have wanted to establish an Islamic caliphate.
Soekarmadji Maridjan Kartosuwiryo, the founder of Darul Islam in West Java, fought to replace the secular ideology in the 1940s and his influence remains strong among radical movements in the country. During elections, West Java becomes a battlefield for any presidential candidate, considering it’s the biggest province with a 50 million population.
In the 1980s, Abu Bakar Baasyir emerged as the leader of the Indonesian Mujaheddin Council which was responsible for new waves of terror attacks. He was later arrested and jailed for 15 years and freed last year.
Islamic militants live in many parts of the country, particularly in West, Central, and East Java, Sulawesi, Sumatra, and also in Jakarta.
Bombings have decreased drastically in the last several years not only because it’s less effective, but also because terror groups such as Jemaah Islamiyah have shifted strategy. They have moved from using bombs to seeking to influence the government through the democratic process.
Together with members of banned groups such as Hizb ut-Tahrir and Islamic Defenders Front (FPI), they want to change the national ideology with Islamic Sharia by participating actively in politics. They realize it is impossible to establish a caliphate without gaining political power first.
That’s the reason why radical groups rally behind a candidate whom they think will support their cause.
In June, they declared support for former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan to run for president in early 2024. He’s seen as someone who can make their Islamic caliphate aspirations come true.
Early this month, the National Democratic Party (Nasdem) officially nominated Baswedan. The Islamic-based Justice Prosperous Party and Democratic Party founded by former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono were expected to join the coalition to support him.
"Widodo’s biggest fear is that if Baswedan becomes president, his hard work to establish peace and harmony would be destroyed"
Some observers claimed that radicalism grew significantly during Yudhoyono’s presidency (2009-2014).
What does it mean for Indonesia? It means that nominating Baswedan, who has close ties with radical groups and clerics such as former Islamic Defenders Front leader Muhammad Rizieq Shihab, opens the door for radical groups to potentially influence the highest-ranking and most powerful official in the land.
This would be disastrous. Many fear that if Baswedan, who is in the top three of preferred candidates in national surveys, wins the election, he will be more responsive to radical groups and could easily be dictated to by extremists.
President Joko Widodo recently warned party leaders to be careful when nominating a presidential candidate. He didn’t mean to intervene in their affairs but he knew exactly the implication of nominating the former Jakarta governor and the people behind him.
Widodo’s biggest fear is that if Baswedan becomes president, his hard work to establish peace and harmony would be destroyed. He fears that all the radical groups he banned during his leadership will return.
Hizb ut-Tahrir and the FPI have a combined membership of over 7.2 million. Experts estimate that about 2 million of this number backed the Islamic State group when it started to expand its influence in the country back in 2014.
During the last presidential race, they rallied behind Prabowo Subianto's unsuccessful bid to defeat Widodo, whom they consider anti-Islam.
This time, they are trying their best to jump on Baswedan’s wagon. If he wins, he will likely be lenient towards radical groups and under pressure to pay them back for their support.
Many feared his inability to denounce radicalism will lead to chaos. The worst-case scenario is that it could see Indonesia going in the same direction as Afghanistan which has been in turmoil since the Taliban appeared The Taliban, somehow, have inspired Indonesian jihadists.
Indonesians don’t want such a situation to happen. The only way to keep Indonesia’s secular ideology intact is by voting for someone who would continue what Widodo has started, and who will continue to keep radical groups in check.
*The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official editorial position of UCA News.
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